January is here and resolutions abound. It’s the time of year for reflecting and making plans for a new year. Are you committing to a Dry January? Shedding a few pounds? Giving up sugar? Saving up for a new car?
2025 gives everyone a clean slate to start anew and conquer their goals. Maybe you’re starting the year at a new trucking company. Maybe you have a renewed strategy to double your profit this year. Maybe you’re looking to get into your first lease.
Regardless of where you are in your personal and professional journey in 2025, a little background on what’s been happening in the trucking industry and what’s bound to happen in January 2025 and beyond will help you go further with those goals. To successfully move forward, it’s best to know where you were, where you are, and where you’re going.
In this article, I’ll apply that to the trucking industry. I’ve been in the industry since 2007, so I’ve seen my fair share of January trucking markets.
In this January update, you can expect to learn the following:
- A 2024 recap highlighting notable industry news
- A look at January 2025 and beyond
- Tips for success in 2025
Take this 2025 insight and use it to build on what you learned in 2024.
Recapping the Trucking Industry in 2024
Economists and transportation experts were hopeful we’d be inching toward a rebound by the end of 2024. While rates did get a little better, that full rebound didn’t happen.
2024 was a year of gradual recovery for the trucking industry, marked by initial struggles, strategic market adjustments, and a peak season surge, all amidst ongoing challenges and technological advancements shaping the future of transportation.
Here are some of the 2024 highlights:
Q1: A Slow Start with Persistent Struggles
The first quarter of 2024 remained notoriously slow, characterized by declining rates, low freight volumes, and minimal market shifts. The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore severely disrupted supply chains, with the Port of Baltimore temporarily closing. Publicly traded trucking companies reported ongoing losses, while smaller players faced rising expenses and market pressures.
Q2: Inflation Pressures and Acquisition Activity
High inflation and rising interest rates continued to challenge carriers, with freight demand sluggish despite some improvements in spot rates. Major carriers like Knight-Swift reported losses, reflecting the ongoing financial strain.
Bid season brought mixed results, as carriers struggled to meet agreed-upon rates. Major acquisitions, such as TFI International's purchase of Daseke and RXO's acquisition of Coyote Logistics, shaped the competitive landscape, while smaller companies like U.S. Logistics Solutions ceased operations. The reopening of the Port of Baltimore in June eased some regional freight disruptions.
Q3: Seasonal Fluctuations and Industry Consolidation
The third quarter saw varied freight demand, influenced by seasonal factors like agricultural harvests and the cooling of construction activity. Freight rates remained inconsistent, with some specialized markets, such as refrigerated goods and flatbed freight, faring better.
Driver shortages persisted, as low rates failed to justify the job's demands. Notable acquisitions, such as RXO's purchase of Coyote Logistics, further signaled industry consolidation.
Q4: Peak Season Gains Amidst Persistent Challenges
The holiday surge in Q4 drove higher freight volumes, but high operating costs and economic uncertainty remained obstacles. Despite improving spot rates, contract rates struggled to recover. Industry players faced rising insurance, maintenance, and labor costs, making survival increasingly challenging for smaller fleets.
Technological Advancements
Throughout 2024, technological advancements, particularly in electric trucks, continued to evolve. Despite significant progress, adoption rates remained low due to infrastructure challenges and limited charging stations. Manufacturers like Scania and competitors such as Daimler and Volvo committed to an electric future, aiming to phase out diesel trucks in the coming decades. The transition to electric trucks is anticipated to increase significantly once the charging infrastructure is established, with electric trucks projected to become more cost-efficient by 2031.
Key Takeaways from 2024
- Rates and Volume: Rates fluctuated throughout the year, with slight improvements in spot markets, but overall, they remained lower than needed to sustain some carriers.
- Driver Retention: Persistent driver shortages highlighted the industry's difficulty in attracting and retaining drivers, exacerbated by inadequate pay and unstable conditions.
- Acquisitions and Consolidation: Major mergers and acquisitions reshaped the industry, as larger players absorbed smaller or struggling carriers.
- Supply Chain Disruptions: Events like the Port of Baltimore closure emphasized the need for resilient supply chain systems.
The Freight Outlook in January 2025
With the new presidential administration entering the White House, we’re in for uncertainty. Lots of reports are flying left and right, but we don’t know what will happen until inauguration day and the new administration’s first weeks in office. Even then, it may take months to see a change reflected in the transportation industry and, subsequently, drivers.
The incoming administration has promised tariffs, certainly, but there may also be employment classification changes, rollbacks to emissions regulations on heavy-duty trucks, speed limiter changes, and a heightened focus on autonomous vehicles. We won’t know until it happens.
However, the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) is expecting to see fewer new regulations during Trump’s second term — if his first term is any indication. During his first term in office, Trump didn’t pause or reverse a controversial electronic logging device (ELD) rule he inherited and he also didn’t implement many new rules.
Most notably, industry experts are speculating about whether or not the Trump administration will return to the 2021 independent contractor rule. A new rule that classifies whether a worker is an employee or an independent contractor became effective on March 11, 2024 and therefore rescinded the 2021 rule. In general, the 2021 rule is considered to favor businesses and, if Trump’s administration returns to this rule, it could make it harder for independent contractors to work for themselves.
The tariffs could eventually mean higher freight volumes, but currently, there is nothing to move demand because the purchase of goods is still down compared to what it was pre-pandemic.
We’ve avoided a recession the last few years, so it appears the Federal Reserve Board is motivated to slowly drop interest rates and aim for a soft landing. Inflation may drop but we probably won’t see deflation. What that means for you as a driver is that prices on things like parts and maintenance will still be high — partially because labor rates went up.
However, experts speculate that healthier pay ranges are coming in 2025. Even a small movement in rates will make a big difference for drivers. It may not come until the second half of the year when we see what happens during the start of the Trump administration, however.
Navigating the 2025 Trucking Industry
In January, you can expect more of the same in 2025 as you did in 2024. You’ll want to keep that door closed and run as many miles (safely) as you can. Keep the following top of mind:
- Run into the storm
- Be smart about home time
- Keep an eye on the market
- Mind your budget
The best way to get through the uncertainty of 2025 is to run straight into the storm. Here at ATS, we call it “being the buffalo.” When you plow into the storm, you get through it a whole lot faster than if you were to run from it. It’s better to face it head-on and get through it.
The market will be slow in the winter months, so now might be the time you head home for some rest if you didn’t take time off during the holidays. If you do plan to go home, be smart about it by saving up in advance to cover your costs when you’re not on the road.
Keep an eye on the market to see where freight is hot. A lot of drivers want to go where it’s warm so they’re less willing to take loads into the Midwest and Northeast. Capitalize on that by being the driver that will take those loads. They’ll pay more, even if you do have to exercise extra caution on wintery roads.
Mind your budget closely and try to cut costs where you can by not idling excessively, minding your fuel expenses, going one or two miles below the posted speed limits, keeping up with maintenance, and keeping safety at the top of your priority list.
Related: How to save money at truck stops
Perseverance in 2025
As we look to January 2025 and beyond, it's clear that the trucking industry is at a pivotal moment. With a new administration, fluctuating market conditions, and ongoing advancements in technology, adaptability, and resilience will be key to success.
No matter what challenges or opportunities the year may bring, staying informed, planning strategically, and keeping your goals in sight will help you navigate the road ahead. Take what you've learned from 2024 and use it as a foundation to tackle 2025 with confidence.
Remember, tough times don’t last, but tough truckers do. Whether you’re running into the storm, managing your finances wisely, or seeking opportunities in underserved lanes, every decision you make moves you closer to success.
For tips on perseverance, check out these tips from ATS drivers.
Here’s to making 2025 a year of growth, determination, and progress — both on the road and in your career. Keep your eyes on the horizon and drive forward.