We’ve entered the last quarter of the year and it’s the most wonderful time of the year!
Well, maybe not.
As the year winds down, truck drivers like you are gearing up for one of the busiest and most unpredictable times on the road — Quarter Four. With the holiday season fast approaching, the trucking industry is bracing for a surge in everything from e-commerce packages to Thanksgiving turkeys and Christmas trees.
But this year’s Q4 could be more of a mixed bag than the presents under the tree. With inflation still hanging around, interest rates on the move, and unpredictable weather events, how you navigate these next few months could make all the difference.
From freight demand and availability to fluctuating rates, we’ve got your road map for finishing 2024 strong. So grab some apple cider or eggnog (or coffee, if you’re still on the road), and let’s dive into what’s happened, what’s coming, and how you can maximize your time and earnings during this festive final stretch of the year.
What Happened in the Trucking Industry in Q3?
In mid-September, asset-light transportation solutions provider RXO acquired Coyote Logistics from UPS. The $1.025 billion purchase makes RXO the third-largest freight brokerage in the U.S. This gives the company a much wider book of business.
In other acquisition news, Platform Science announced its acquisition of Trimble and its global transportation telematics business. According to Trimble, “The proposed transaction aims to enhance driver experience, fleet safety, efficiency, and compliance by combining two cutting-edge in-cab commercial vehicle ecosystems, which will give customers access to more applications and offerings.”
Let’s dive deeper into freight demand and rates in Q3.
Freight Demand and Availability
Q3 saw some ups and downs in freight demand, influenced by seasonal shifts and larger economic factors. As the summer months passed, the construction boom that typically drives up freight demand for building materials began to cool off. However, the agricultural sector saw a bump as harvest season kicked into gear, which provided steady loads for those running in agricultural regions.
Despite the fluctuations, demand remained relatively stable in certain key industries. For example, manufacturing and retail continued to push steady volumes, especially in regions tied to these sectors.
We did see capacity (drivers like you) leave the market. Being a truck driver is a tough job; drivers need to be paid a premium to be out on the road away from their families for weeks at a time. If rates don’t justify it, drivers will continue to leave — and they’ll head to more stable industries.
Freight Rates: Navigating the Ups and Downs
Freight rates in Q3 mirrored the uncertainty seen across the supply chain. Early in the quarter, drivers noticed a softening in rates as consumer demand weakened due to inflation concerns.
However, specific markets—particularly on the East Coast — kept things steady for specialized hauls, like refrigerated goods and flatbed freight. It was all about being in the right place at the right time — and knowing where freight was hot.
ATS directly saw this trend impact us, as our heavy haul division performed notably well in Q3.
Looking Ahead to Q4 2024
What can we expect in Q4 when it comes to rates, supply and demand, and availability? Let’s break it down.
Freight Demand Trends
Q4 is always a busy time for the trucking industry, and this year should be no different — though it won’t be nearly as busy as it has been in previous years. In fact, signs point to a false fourth quarter.
As we head into the holiday season, e-commerce will likely be the big driver of freight demand. Warehouses will be shipping out online orders in record numbers, and that’s good news for anyone running regional or last-mile routes.
We’ll also see the movement of goods associated with celebrating the holidays, like Christmas trees, decorations, and tons of food that supply those holiday dinner tables. Hello, turkeys, hams, and harvest goods!
In addition to holiday freight, industries like manufacturing and agriculture will continue to push strong volumes. However, drivers should expect some variability as inflation impacts consumer behavior. It's possible that retail freight could be lighter than usual if spending remains conservative.
Lower interest rates are coming — right on the heels of inflation leveling out in some areas. This could influence overall volume. As capacity continues to slowly bleed, we’ll see if that, combined with the predicted interest rate decreases, can help even out volume.
Freight Rates Forecast
Historically, freight rates tend to rise in Q4 as demand peaks, particularly with holiday shipping in full swing. However, this year may bring some unpredictability. With inflation concerns still looming and consumers being cautious with their spending, rates could see some swings.
That said, there are still plenty of opportunities to secure higher-paying loads — especially if you’re running specialized equipment or flexible with your lanes. Be prepared for potential rate fluctuations but don’t be surprised if rates jump during peak shipping weeks around Black Friday and Christmas.
Capacity is always a wildcard in Q4. With more freight to move and fewer drivers on the road due to holiday time off, there’s a good chance that demand will outpace supply in certain regions. This means those who are ready to run can capitalize on higher-paying loads. Drivers who position themselves in the right markets will find plenty of work.
However, be mindful of potential bottlenecks, particularly in urban areas where holiday congestion could push back delivery times. Trip planning is key.
Supply Chain and Market Shifts
The ongoing challenges in the global supply chain have continued to ripple through the trucking industry. Equipment shortages, higher diesel prices, and regulatory changes played a role in shaping how Q3 unfolded and we’ll see those ripple effects go into Q4.
Many carriers will continue to feel the squeeze — as they have been for months — while they balance operational costs with available freight. As you probably already know, drivers, too, will continue to be affected by these broader trends, facing fewer available loads in certain regions while seeing better opportunities in others. Such has been the market for the last several quarters.
Nearing the end of Q3, we feared a port strike from U.S. dockworkers that would severely disrupt the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports. While the strike did come to fruition, the union for U.S. dockworkers and the U.S. Maritime Alliance agreed on a deal just three days into the strike.
One day on strike alone can cause a week of port congestion, so it took a few weeks to untangle the mess at the ports as consumers started to panic-buy and costs began to rise.
The Southeast has also been getting hit by major storms — Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton — that upended communities and left hundreds unaccounted for and thousands without power, water, or access to supplies.
As a result, there’s an uptick of supplies heading to that area from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). You may have even been one of the drivers bringing supplies to the disaster zones.
If you’re traveling through the Southeast, be sure to carefully trip plan. Some roads are still closed.
Tips for Successfully Hauling Freight in Q4
Making the most out of Q4 is all about being strategic and prepared. Here are a few tips to help you thrive during this busy season.
Bear the Storm
With rates potentially fluctuating due to inflation and unpredictable consumer spending, it’s important to stay adaptable. Plan loads carefully, stay connected with your dispatcher, and keep an eye on rate trends to ensure you’re not leaving money on the table.
Focus on running lanes where demand is expected to be high, such as regions with major e-commerce hubs or strong agricultural outputs. If possible, be flexible and willing to run new routes to chase the best opportunities.
Careful trip planning can help you make the most of your time and maximize your earnings. Factor in fuel costs, tolls, and the likelihood of delays, especially around the holidays. The more efficiently you run, the more money you’ll pocket.
Rates will be as cold as the weather, so being adaptable is key.
Stay on Top of Equipment Maintenance
Make sure your truck is in top shape heading into the holiday season. A well-maintained rig will help you avoid costly delays and missed opportunities.
Especially if you’re traveling through the colder northern states, you’re going to need to make sure your truck is ready to take on the elements. Make a shop appointment so technicians can winterize your truck. They’ll check fluid levels, the battery, tire pressure, and your bunk heater.
Fill Your Truck with Warm Winter Gear
Winterizing your truck isn’t just a matter of getting it in the shop to have fluid levels checked. You also need to make sure your truck is stocked with the proper supplies.
You should carry fuel additives and Diesel 911 in your truck beginning as soon as late October. Stock your truck with warm weather gear like a warm coat, thick socks, boots, and a hat.
Extra water and non-perishables are also a good idea to stay stocked up on.
Plan for the Holidays
If you haven’t already, start making a holiday plan. Are you going home? Are you staying on the road? Are you buying gifts for the whole family? Are you hosting a big dinner? You may have a lot to save for.
Not only that, but if you take time off from the road, you may have truck payments and insurance to worry about. Even though you’re not on the road, you still have to make the payments. If you’re not hauling freight, you need to have money saved up to cover the payments or risk going in the hole. If you don’t have enough money saved up, you may need to only go home for one holiday instead of both.
While you’re thinking about money, make sure you let your dispatcher know ahead of time that you’d like to take home time for the holidays.
Related: How to Save for the Holidays
Winter is Coming — Be Ready for It
As we head into the final stretch of 2024, it’s important to stay flexible, strategic, and prepared. Quarter Four can be a rewarding time, but only if you’re ready to adapt to changing conditions — from fluctuating rates to unexpected weather.
By staying on top of maintenance, planning your routes carefully, and keeping an eye on market trends, you can position yourself for success. Whether you’re hauling holiday goods or working through the quiet weeks, keep your focus on the road ahead and make the most of the opportunities that come your way.
And while you’re out there, don’t forget these winter driving tips!